京津唐地区细菌性痢疾社会经济影响时空分析

细菌性痢疾是常见疾病,也是备受关注的公共健康问题。近年来,京津唐地区的细菌性痢疾发病率相对较高。本文首先分析了2012年京津唐地区细菌性痢疾的季节性和人群特征;其次,使用热点分析模型,探索了京津唐地区细菌性痢疾发病率的时空聚集性;最后,运用地理探测器模型研究了细菌性痢疾的发生和社会经济因素之间的量化关系。结果表明：① 细菌性痢疾发病的峰值时间是8月;发病率最高的年龄段是0-9岁,其次是80岁以上;农民群体发病率最高,其次是散居儿童。② 京津唐地区细菌性痢疾在空间和时间上都存在聚集性。空间上,细菌性痢疾发病率的高聚集区主要分布于北京市的房山区及门头沟区和天津市的滨海新区,低聚集区主要分布于唐山市的滦县,时间上,细菌性痢疾发病率的高聚集区在12个月均有发生,低聚集区主要发生在1-4月以及6月。③ 影响细菌性痢疾发病率空间分布的主要社会经济因素为农村人口占总人口的比例、人口密度和各区县的人均GDP,它们的解释力分别为61%,37%和20%,并且发现它们的交互作用都大于独自影响的作用。本研究通过对京津唐地区细菌性痢疾发病情况的人群特征、时空特征以及影响因素的分析,为本地区细菌性痢疾的预防和控制提供理论依据。

Spatial-temporal Analysis of Social-economic Factors of Bacillary Dysentery inBeijing-Tianjin-Tangshan,China

Bacillary dysentery is a common disease as well as a public health problem with much attention. In recent years, the incidence of bacterial dysentery is rather prevalent in Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan region. This paper analyzed the seasonal and population characteristics of bacillary dysentery in Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan region in 2012 firstly. Then, we explored the spatial and temporal clustering of the incidence of bacillary dysentery by using hotspot analysis model. We also investigated the quantitative relationship between the incidence of bacterial dysentery and the social-economic factors by using geographical detector model. The results showed that: (1) the peak attack time of bacillary dysentery was August. The age range that had the highest incidence was 0-9 years old, followed by those above 80 years old. The population that had the highest incidence was farmers, followed by the scattered children. (2) The incidence of bacterial dysentery clustered in both space and time in Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan region. In space, the high clustering regions for incidence of bacillary dysentery are mainly located in Fangshan District and Mentougou District of Beijing and Binhai New Area of Tianjin;the low clustering regions are mainly located in Luan county of Tangshan. In time, the disease occurred in all the 12 months in 2012 in the high clustering regions, but mainly occurred in January, February, March, April and June in the low clustering regions. (3) The major socio-economic factors affecting the spatial distribution of incidence of bacterial dysentery included the proportion of rural population, population density and per capita GDP of each district or county, which explanatory power was 61%, 37% and 20%, respectively. The interactive effects were stronger than their individual effects. This study analyzed the population characteristics, spatial and temporal characteristics and influencing factors of incidence of bacillary dysentery in Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan region and provided a theoretical basis for the prevention and control of bacterial dysentery in these regions.