辽宁开原龙卷强对流过程的扰动天气环境

2019年7月3日下午辽宁部分地区出现短时强降水和冰雹等强对流天气，其中开原市金钩子镇遭遇了龙卷风，造成当地严重的生命财产损失.本文重点分析有利于这次龙卷和冰雹等强对流过程发生的大气变量扰动环境，包括数值模式预报产品中的扰动天气环境以及雷达回波和卫星云图演变对应的大气扰动风场变化特征.结果发现：开原单个龙卷与苏北多次单个龙卷发生的大气温压场扰动环境相似，发生地位于对流层上部下伸到地面的位势高度扰动槽线和近地面水平方向上冷暖温度扰动气团交界线附近，其冷暖扰动气团之间的强度对比较美国多龙卷爆发时的弱小.利用来自欧洲中期天气预报中心（ECMWF）模式产品和美国国家环境预报中心全球预报系统（NCEP/GFS）的实时分析资料进行扰动环流形势分析并与当地实况卫星云图和雷达回波相结合，可以从潜在趋势上定性地推断有利于强对流天气发展的位置.

Anomalous synoptic environments of a strong convective process with tornado in Kaiyuan City,Liaoning Province

On 3 July 2019, a severe convective weather process with heavy rainfall, hail and tornado happened on some areas in Liaoning Province. The tornado occurred in the Jingouzi Town, Kaiyuan City and caused the loss of life and property. This paper reveals the strong convective weather process including hails and a single tornado associated with some anomalous environments by using model forecast products, reanalysis atmospheric variables, satellite image and radar echoes. The results showed that the strong convective weather with a single tornado was located in a place of downward trough axis of geopotential height anomalies and a boundary line between cold-warm air masses of temperature anomalies near the surface. The spatial structure is similar to those tornadoes happened in northern Jiangsu but weaker than their counterparts in America. By using the ECMWF model products and the US NCEP/GFS real-time analyzed wind and combining with the local satellite image and radar echoes, the potential intensity and location of this strong convective weather can be predicted in advance.