鄂西清江隔河岩水库茅坪滑坡蠕滑变形及其稳定性

茅坪滑坡是清江隔河岩库区一个大型的基岩古滑坡体。自1993年4月隔河岩水库蓄水以来,滑坡体变形日趋明显,表现为整体蠕滑的特征。根据该滑坡12年的变形监测资料,分析了滑坡的蠕滑变形特征及其变化趋势,认为茅坪滑坡变形具有累进性破坏的特点,目前处于加速蠕变阶段。稳定计算结果也表明,滑坡体处于一种潜在临界不稳定状态。若遇强降雨、库水位骤降、岩崩或地震等触发因素,茅坪滑坡有可能整体失稳下滑。

Creeping deformation of the Maoping landslide and its stability in the Geheyan reservoir on the Qingjiang River, western Hubei, China

The Maoping landslide is a large and old landslide of the bed rock in the Geheyan reservoir area of the Qingjiang River. Since the reservoir was impounded in April 1993, the deformation of the landslide is conspicuous progressively and shows the characteristics of holistic creeping. According to the deformation monitoring data over 12 years, the authors analyze the creeping properties and variation trend of the landslide and think that the deformation of the Maoping landslide has the feature of progressive failure and is in the stage of accelerated creeping at present. The stability calculation also indicates that the landslide is in a latent critical unstable state. It is possible that the landslide might lose its stability and slide down en masse if there occur trigger factors such as heavy rains, abrupt lowering of the reservoir water level, avalanches and earthquakes.