| 基于T213产品与水汽收支的强降水面雨量预报方法及其误差分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 周后福 翟武全 丁太胜 刘惠敏. 基于T213产品与水汽收支的强降水面雨量预报方法及其误差分析[J]. 气象科技, 2005, 33(1): 12-16 |
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| 作者姓名： | 周后福 翟武全 丁太胜 刘惠敏 |
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| 作者单位： | 安徽省气象科学研究所,合肥,230031;安徽省气象局,合肥,230061 |
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| 基金项目： | 安徽省科技攻关计划“安徽暴雨形成机理和定时、定点、定量预报技术研究”资助 |
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| 摘 要： | 基于T213数值预报产品，以水汽收支平衡方程为基础，研制预报强降水的落区及强度的预报方法，并利用此方法制作6h面雨量的预报。该方法在2003年汛期淮河流域洪涝期间进行了应用，利用所得面雨量结果与实况降水进行各种误差分析。结果表明，预报正确率较高，该方法较为可靠，有一定的预报价值。
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| 关 键 词： | 面雨量 水汽收支 落区 短期预报 误差 |
| 修稿时间： | 2003-08-01 |
Area Rainfall Forecast Method and Its Error Analysis Based on T213 Products and Water-Vapor Budget |
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| Zhou Houfu Zhai Wuquan Ding Taisheng Liu Huimin. Area Rainfall Forecast Method and Its Error Analysis Based on T213 Products and Water-Vapor Budget[J]. Meteorological Science and Technology, 2005, 33(1): 12-16 |
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| Authors: | Zhou Houfu Zhai Wuquan Ding Taisheng Liu Huimin |
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| Affiliation: | Zhou Houfu1 Zhai Wuquan2 Ding Taisheng1 Liu Huimin1 |
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| Abstract: | Based on T213 numerical prediction products and the equation of water-vapor budget, the method of predicting rainfall areas and their intensity is introduced. The area rainfall prediction in 6 hours was made. The method was applied in the flood season along the Huaihe River in 2003. The error analysis was made between prediction and observation. The results indicate that the method is useful and reliable. |
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| Keywords: | area rainfall water-vapor budget rainfall area short-term forecast error |
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