基于历史TLE的空间目标轨道预报误差演化规律研究

北美防空司令部(North American Aerospace Defense Command, NORAD)发布的双行根数(Two Line Element, TLE)是广大航天工作者最常用的轨道根数,与其对应的轨道模型是SGP4/SDP4 (Simplified General Perturbation Version 4/Simplified Deep-space Perturbation Version 4)解析模型.由于TLE中并没有包含相应的轨道精度信息,编目轨道的应用范围受到很大的限制.基于Space-Track网站发布的历史TLE数据和配套的SGP4/SDP4动力学模型,采用定轨标预报的方法统计并生成了大量目标轨道的预报误差,通过对预报轨道的时间区间划分给出了每个目标的预报误差随预报时间变化的拟合系数,并进一步对不同类型轨道预报误差的演化规律和特征进行了分类讨论,给出了4种轨道类型目标的轨道预报误差随时间演化的平均解析模型,为拓展双行根数的应用提供有价值的参考.

Study on Orbit Prediction Error of Space Objects Based on Historical TLE

Two line element (TLE) released by North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD) is widely used by aerospace workers, and the matched SGP4/SDP4 (Simplified General Perturbation Version 4/Simplified Deep-space Perturbation Version 4) model is used to propagate it. Nevertheless, no corresponding information of accuracy and covariance is clearly given, thus the application in TLE data is greatly restricted. In this paper, the determined and predicted orbits are compared to generate orbital error data, based on the historical TLE from the Space-Track website and SGP4/SDP4 model. By dividing different time bins, the fitting coefficients of each space object''s orbit prediction error variation are given, and the characteristics of error evolution in different orbits are further discussed. The mean analysis models of orbit prediction error evolution with time for four orbit types of targets are given, which provides a valuable reference for expanding the application of TLE data.