探讨老观念 开拓新模式：地震预报战略的研讨

鉴于观测事实表明相隔很远的地震间,以及与相隔很远的前兆,可以有较好的同步性,因此对传统的孕震模式需要重新审议。当前的预报能力评分约为R=0.2—0.3,表明当前的预报确有客观规律的依据;但服务于社会,这样的精度远不能满足要求,这是地震预报工作面临的严峻问题。观測到大陆强震基本上都同时位在一些不同方向的屈曲变形带上,可以认为多种变形屈曲间的互锁是形成强震的必要条件,这为我们进一步建立新的大陆强震发生模式创造了条件。

EXAMINING THE OLD IDEAS AND DEVELOPING NEW PATTERNS-DELIBERATIONS ON THE STRATEGY OF EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION

In view of fact that there may be a great synchronism between earthquakes and precursors which far from each other, so the traditional seismogenic pattern needs to be examined. Now the ability of earthquake prediction is about R=0.2-0.3. This indicats that the prediction has the basis of an objective law. But this ability is far below the needs to serve the society. And this is a grim problem faced by the earthquake prediction work. It has been observed that continental strong earthquakes often occur basically at different parts of some annular buckling deformation zones in about the same time. So it may be considered that the mutual locking between several annular deformation buckles are the necessary condition for forming earthquakes. This also provides some conditions for us to further develop new pattern of continental strong earthquakes.