大气中对称不稳定机制的动力学分析及暴雨的分析与预报

用气块法从力学角度对对称不稳定机制及在对称不稳定条件下产生的环流进行分析，更全面地定义了对称不稳定及它的产生机制和中尺度环流形成的过程。对暴雨个例诊断分析表明，有些强降水区在降水前和降水过程中存在着不对称不稳定，说明对称不稳定条件下形成的环流对暴雨有引发和加强作用。在以往研究原基础上，总结出了利用常规观测资料分析对称不是否存在，及其能量大小的方法，用它来预报是否降水及降水的强度，从而提高降水预报准确率。

Dynamical Analysis of Atmospheric Symetric Instability Mechanism and Its Torrential Rainfall forecast

An air parcel method is used to analyse the symmetric instability mechanism and the circulation caused by it.The diagonoses of the case of torrential rain indicate that there is symetric instabilitiy before the precipitation and in the process of it in some area.So it could be concluded that the circulation induced by symmetric instability could induce and strenthen the torrential rain.A method to conform whether there is symmetric instability and the power of it by using conventional observation and radiosonde data is introduced.Furthermore,the forecast of precipitation and its intensity can be made by the method and the accuracy of torrential rain and flood forecast can be greatly improved.