Extreme sea levels,coastal flooding and climate change with a focus on Atlantic Canada |
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Authors: | Keith R Thompson Natacha B Bernier Paul Chan |
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Institution: | (1) Department of Oceanography, Dalhousie University, Halifax, NS, Canada |
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Abstract: | Estimation of the probability distribution of extreme sea levels, for the present time and the next century, is discussed.
Two approaches are described and their strengths and weaknesses are compared. The first approach is based on dynamics and
uses a storm surge model forced by tides, winds and air pressure fields. The second approach is based on the statistical analysis
of observed hourly sea level records using a new first-order Markov process that can capture non-Gaussian characteristics
(such as skewness) in the non-tidal component of the observed sea level record. It is shown that both approaches can provide
good estimates of present day flooding probabilities for regions with relatively strong tides. The limitations of both approaches
in terms of assessing the effect of global sea level rise, glacial-isostatic adjustment of the land, and changes in the frequency
and severity of storms and hurricanes, are illustrated using recent results for the Northwest Atlantic. Some sensitivity studies
are carried out to transform uncertainty in climate change projections into uncertainties in the probability of coastal flooding. |
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