| 实时洪水预报综合修正方法初探 |
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| 引用本文： | 瞿思敏,包为民.实时洪水预报综合修正方法初探[J].水科学进展,2003,14(2):167-171. |
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| 作者姓名： | 瞿思敏 包为民 |
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| 作者单位： | 河海大学水资源环境学院, 江苏, 南京, 210098 |
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| 摘 要： | 利用误差的相似性扩大实时修正信息量,结合神经网络异联想记忆技术,提出了综合实时修正方法。并在七里街流域用11场洪水分别采用自回归(AR)模型和综合修正方法进行实时修正。分析结果表明,采用综合修正方法既能获得比AR模型更好的精度,又不损失洪水预报的预见期。进一步对闽江的6个支流流域近50场洪水进行综合修正方法实时修正检验,都获得了较好的结果。
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| 关 键 词： | 误差 相似性 异联想记忆 综合修正 实时洪水预报 |
| 文章编号： | 1001-6791(2003)02-167-05 |
| 收稿时间： | 2002-01-23 |
| 修稿时间： | 2002年1月23日 |
Comprehensive correction of real-time flood forecasting |
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| QU Si-min,BAO Wei-min.Comprehensive correction of real-time flood forecasting[J].Advances in Water Science,2003,14(2):167-171. |
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| Authors: | QU Si-min BAO Wei-min |
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| Institution: | College of Water Resources and Environment, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China |
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| Abstract: | By using the hetero-associative memory of nerve-network and the similarity of the error that can enlarge the real-time information,a comprehensive real-time correction method is presented.An auto-regressive(AR)model and a comprehensive correction method are both made for real-time correction of 11 floods in Qilijie Basin.The results show that a comprehensive correction method is more accurate and the forecast lead period is not lost,comparing with the AR model.The results of using the comprehensive correction method for testing the nearly 50 floods in six tributary basins of Minjiang Basin are satisfactory. |
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| Keywords: | error similarity hetero-associative memory comprehensive correction real-time flood forecasting |
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