Einfluss korrelativer Abhängigkeiten auf simulierte Zeitreihen: Empfindlichkeit des Fiering-Modells gegenüber Veränderungen der Korrelationsstruktur

The simulation of time series is based on estimated statistical parameters of the empirical time series. The Fiering Model generating monthly sums of streamflows is used as an example for the simulation in order to account for the error of the model, theoretically and practically, caused by statistically inprecise parameter estimation. The sensitivity of this model, especially to the correlation coefficients, is analyzed by means of systematic variations of the correlation coefficients, since these are most affected by the error of estimation. No significant dependency could be found comparing the empirical and simulated parameters mean, standard deviation, and skewness. From this follows, that the importance of the correlation coefficients in the Fiering Model is generally overestimated. The results are given for monthly sums of streamflows at four stations with different hydrological characteristics.