北京市土地利用动态变化及其预测

土地利用是人类经济活动在地理空间的集中体现。基于GIS的北京市土地利用遥感信息的叠置分析,发现北京市土地利用近15年来变化比较剧烈;以2000年的土地利用为基态,建立Markov模型,对北京市未来土地利用变化进行了预测分析,发现与国务院的要求还有很大差距,建议采取得力措施,加强土地利用管理,有效保护耕地。

Land Use Dynamic Change in Beijing and its Forecast

The change of land use/land cover research is a hotspot issue in the fields of environment and resources researches at present. Under the support of remote sensing and GIS techniques, the land use classification information is extracted from the Landsat TM imagery and a spatial database of land use has been built firstly. And then, according to this spatial land use database, the dynamic information is abstracted. Based on this information, a transformation matrix between every two types of land use is built, and then a Markov Chain model used to forecast the land use structure change is made. The result indicates the cultivated land will deduce a lot in the year 2010, and a more effective land use management policy must be implemented to protect the limited cultivated land in Beijing.