地震报道中死亡人数估计方法的适用性分析

基于国内外8次地震报道死亡人数的统计数据,采用修正指数曲线、龚铂茨曲线、罗吉斯蒂曲线分别进行震后死亡人数估计。对比分析表明三种模型均适合地震报道死亡人数估计;用剔除前两个拟合值后的拟合精度作为预测误差在实际应用中具有实际参考价值。对中国3次强震报道死亡人数拟合结果分析显示,联合三种模型,采用相对误差较小的模型为主、另两种模型为参考的方法进行最终死亡人数预测,可为抗震救灾指挥部署提供参考依据。

Applicability Analysis of Estimation Methods for Reported Casualties after Earthq uakes

Based on statistic data of casualties reported after 8 earthquakes at home and a broad,modified exponential curve,Gompertz curve, Logistic curve are used to estimate casualties due to earthquakes. The results of comparative analysis show that all the three models are suitable for estimation of casualties reported due to earthquakes; it has practi-cal value in practical applications to use the fitting precisions after eliminated the first two fitted values as prediction error. The fitting analysis based on the data of casualties repor ted by 3 earthquakes in China indicates that the three models can be combined to forecast the final casualties due to earthquakes, mainly using one model which has small relative error and the other two as reference.