Economic and climatic factors in ‘acreage abandonment’ over marginal cropland

Crop yield projections made at planting time or during the growing season often ignore the fact that an unknown percentage of planted acreage is not harvested. As a solution, we present a model for 'acreage abandonment, based upon both economic and weather variables. Weather is shown to be a much more important determinant of the decision not to harvest than is the expected price. The explained variance in abandonment of spring wheat acreage by future delivery price is approximately 16%, but rises to over 60% when weather variables are added. In a similarly designed model for winter wheat in the southern plains, the price contribution is less than 5%.The spring wheat model was tested on two extensive sets of withheld data: three-year successive deletions through the entire (1932–1975) data set, and a ten year block at the beginning of the modelling period that included substantial weather and price perturbations induced by the dust bowl, depression, and attendant market gyrations. Predictive capability was retained in both tests.Current weather appears to weigh more heavily in the abandonment decision than does future price.