南海夏季风爆发的数值预报试验

分析了1986年南海夏季风爆发的环流演变特征，由经向风速剖面图看出，南风首先在中南半岛迅速加强，然后向南海发展，南海夏季风爆发同孟加拉湾低压的发展密切相关。通过地形和非绝热单因子敏感性数值预报试验表明，地形作用和凝结潜热等非绝热作用对南海夏季风的爆发都是很重要的，包含有这两种作用在内的控制试验成功地预报出了南海夏季风爆发的中期演变过程，单独的地形作用或非绝热作用都不能预报出南海夏季风的爆发。

A Numerical Forecast Experiment on the Onset ofthe Summer Monsoon over the South China Sea

The characteristics of atmospheric circulation change of the South China Sea summer monsoon onset in 1986 are analyzed. The cross section of the v component of the wind vector in the lower troposphere shows that the south wind is intensified quickly first over the Indo-China Peninsula, then progressed to the South China Sea. The onset of the summer monsoon over the South China Sea may be closely related to the intensifying of low-pressure located in the Bay of Bengal. Based on the results of various sensitive numerical forecast experiments, it is show that the dynamic effects of the topography and the effects of condensation latent heat are both very important to the onset of the summer monsoon over the South China Sea. The major change processes of the onset of the summer monsoon over the South China Sea are well predicted when the effects of the topography and the diabatic heating are both included in the control experiment, but could not be predicted only by the dynamic effects of the topography or by the diabatic heating effects.