宁夏农牧交错区（盐池）草地生产力对气候变化的响应

用宁夏农牧交错区(盐池县)1954—2004年的气候资料,分析了该地区51 a来气温、降水的变化趋势及其草地气候生产力的变化。结果表明：从1954年以来的51 a内,盐池气温呈明显上升趋势;春、夏季降水量和年降水量略呈增加趋势,秋、冬季降水量略呈减少的态势,但趋势不明显;草地气候生产力呈增加趋势。草地气候生产力与年降水量关系密切,水分是制约草地气候生产力的关键因子。未来“暖湿型”气候对盐池草地的干物质生产最有利,平均增产幅度为10% ,而“冷干型”气候对草地的干物质生产最不利,平均减产幅度为10%。若气温升高1～2 ℃,降水量增加10%～20% ,则盐池草地的气候生产力将增加10%～20%。

Response of Grassland Productivity to Climate Change in Farming-Pasturing Interlaced Area of Ningxia

The changes of temperature, precipitation and grassland climatic productivity of Ningxia farming-pasturing interlaced area(Yanchi country) were analyzed based on the meteorological data from 1954 to 2004．The results showed that the temperature in the 51 years clearly tended to rise; both spring precipitation and summer precipitation had slight trend of increasing, but autumn precipitation and winter precipitation had slight trend of decreasing; the grassland climatic productivity increased. There is close relationship between grassland climatic productivity and the annual precipitation, thus water is the key factor of controlling grassland climatic productivity. It was forecasted that the future warm-wet-type climate is beneficial to grassland production increasing, with a yield-increasing rate of 10%, but the cold-dry-type climate is disadvantageous to grassland production, with a yield-decreasing rate of 10%. The grassland productivity will be increased by 10% to 20%, if the annual temperature rise by 1 ℃ to 2 ℃ and the annual precipitation increase by 10% to 20% in the future.