| 风暴增水随机分析的过阈法及其统计计算模式 |
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| 引用本文： | 董胜,李奉利,孙瑞文.风暴增水随机分析的过阈法及其统计计算模式[J].中国海洋大学学报(自然科学版),2000,30(3):542-548. |
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| 作者姓名： | 董胜 李奉利 孙瑞文 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 青岛海洋大学工程学院,青岛,266003
2. 青岛市建设委员会,青岛,266003 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家“九五”攻关课题!(96-92 2 -0 3 -0 3 )，青岛海洋大学青年教师基金!( 50 2 1 2 8)资助 |
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| 摘 要： | 以青岛大港观测站 32年增水过程为例 ,探讨风暴增水工程设计参数的频率分析法 ,进行了不同阈值序列及各种理论线型的分布拟合。首次提出 Poisson- Pearson- III型分布模式 ,并将其用于工程计算 :对比分析 POT法与年极值法的计算结果 ;给出青岛大港站风暴增水多年一遇设计值 ,为进一步科学地确定海岸防潮工程设计水位奠定了基础。
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| 关 键 词： | 风暴增水 Poisson-Pearson-III型分布 分布拟合 POT法 年极值法 |
| 修稿时间： | 1999--07-0 |
On the Peak over Threshold Method in the Statistical Analysis of Storm Surge Elevation and Its Probability Model |
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| Dong Sheng,Li Fengli,Sun Ruiwen.On the Peak over Threshold Method in the Statistical Analysis of Storm Surge Elevation and Its Probability Model[J].Periodical of Ocean University of China,2000,30(3):542-548. |
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| Authors: | Dong Sheng Li Fengli Sun Ruiwen |
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| Abstract: | By taking the 32 year storm surge elevation at Qingdao Dagang Tidal Station as an example,this paper discusses the probability analysis method for calculating storm design parameters in engineering. Different threshold series and theoretical distributions are applied to fitting the observed data. The Poisson Pearson III type distribution is put forward in engineering design for the first time. The results obtained with the POT method and the annual extreme value method are compared and discussed. The return period values of storm surge elevations are calculated. |
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| Keywords: | storm surge elevation Poisson Pearson III type distribution distribution fitting POT method annual extreme value method |
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