辽宁暴雨事件影响的预评估和灾后速评估

本文不同于通常的暴雨灾害事后灾情评估,而是单纯采用气象资料来实现暴雨事件的灾前预评估和灾后快速评估。为此,通过对辽宁省区域性暴雨事件历史资料的统计分析,利用平均降水量、降水强度和覆盖范围3个指标,建立了基于距离函数的暴雨事件快速评估模型。在建模过程中,对每个指标进行了正态化转化和正态性检验,并利用正态分布概率密度函数确立了各指标数年一遇的等级标准。采用定义域平移的办法,对模型中各指标的权重系数进行了调整。另外,应用此模型对2005年汛期三次区域性暴雨事件进行了评估应用,结果表明,决策服务效果较好。

AN ASSESSMENT METHOD OF TORRENTIAL RAIN EVENT IN LIAONING PROVINCE

Based on the statistical analysis on the observation data of a set of regional torrential rain events,an assessment model of torrential rain event was set up.It employs average precipitation,rain intensity and cover range as the assessment indexes and the distance function as the calculation method.Every parameter was normalized and divided to some degrees according to the probability density function of the normal distribution.The adjustment of their weights in the model was completed through the movement of definition area(DA).Using the direct assessment model,3 regional torrential rain events during the flood season of 2005 were assessed.