NDVI dynamics as reflected in climatic variables: spatial and temporal trends – a case study of Hungary |
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Authors: | Szilárd Szabó László Elemér Zoltán Kovács Zoltán Püspöki Ádám Kertész Sudhir Kumar Singh |
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Institution: | 1. Department of Physical Geography and Geoinformatics, University of Debrecen, Egyetem tér 1, H-4032 Debrecen, Hungary https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2670-7384;2. Isotope Climatology and Environmental Research Centre (ICER), Institute for Nuclear Research, Hungarian Academy of Sciences, Debrecen, H-4026, Hungary https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7276-7241;3. Pannónia Ltd., Majos I. u. 55., H-7187 Bonyhád, Hungary https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8833-0159;4. Department of Data Management, Geological and Geophysical Institute of Hungary, Kolumbusz utca 17–23., H-1145 Budapest, Hungary https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8833-0159;5. Research Centre for Astronomy and Earth Sciences of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences, Geographical Institute, Buda?rsi str. 45, H-1112 Budapest, Hungary;6. K. Banerjee Centre of Atmospheric &7. Ocean Studies, IIDS, Nehru Science Centre, University of Allahabad, 211002 Allahabad, India https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8465-0649 |
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Abstract: | Understanding climate change and revealing its future paths on a local level is a great challenge for the future. Beside the expanding sets of available climatic data, satellite images provide a valuable source of information. In our study we aimed to reveal whether satellite data are an appropriate way to identify global trends, given their shorter available time range. We used the CARPATCLIM (CC) database (1961–2010) and the MODIS NDVI images (2000–2016) and evaluated the time period covered by both (2000–2010). We performed a regression analysis between the NDVI and CC variables, and a time series analysis for the 1961–2008 and 2000–2008 periods at all data points. The results justified the belief that maximum temperature (TMAX), potential evapotranspiration and aridity all have a strong correlation with the NDVI; furthermore, the short period trend of TMAX can be described with a functional connection with its long period trend. Consequently, TMAX is an appropriate tool as an explanatory variable for NDVI spatial and temporal variance. Spatial pattern analysis revealed that with regression coefficients, macro-regions reflected topography (plains, hills and mountains), while in the case of time series regression slopes, it justified a decreasing trend from western areas (Transdanubia) to eastern ones (The Great Hungarian Plain). This is an important consideration for future agricultural and land use planning; i.e. that western areas have to allow for greater effects of climate change. |
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Keywords: | climate change trend CARPATCLIM principal component analysis topographic variables MODIS |
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