The impact of land use change on water resources in sub-Saharan Africa: a modelling study of Lake Malawi

A modelling study to investigate the effects of land use change from natural forest to agricultural land on large-scale catchment runoff in southern Africa is described. The evaporative component of the model considers the catchment to be composed of one of three surface types—forest, agricultural land or water surface. Values of the model parameters for the forest and agricultural lands were obtained from experimental studies carried out in the dry zone of India. Estimates of average monthly potential evaporation, together with measurements of monthly rainfall, were used in the model to predict the monthly levels of Lake Malawi. These were compared with observed levels. From 1896 to 1967 the major fluctuations in lake level, both seasonally and annually, are well described by this model (excepting the period from 1935 to 1945, immediately following the time when there was no outflow from the lake) using a value of 64% for the forest coverage of the catchment. The overall agreement between prediction and observation indicates that variations in rainfall alone, without changes in either evaporative demand or in the hydraulic regime of the lake, are sufficient to explain lake level changes. For the more recent period (1954–1994), model predictions of lake level which take into account a decrease in forest cover of 13% over the period 1967–1990 (consistent with the actual decrease in forest cover for this period) agree well with observations both annually and seasonally. Without this decrease in forest cover, the model predicted that the lake level would have been about 1 m lower than that observed during the southern African drought of 1992. The model, in conjunction with real-time rainfall data obtained from land-based gauges, radar or satellite observations, can be used for real-time water resource management applications such as the operation of barrages regulating the flow from Lake Malawi or for the issuing of flood or drought warnings.