| 近期华北地震大形势的统计分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 蒋海昆.近期华北地震大形势的统计分析[J].地震地磁观测与研究,1993,14(5):47-51. |
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| 作者姓名： | 蒋海昆 |
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| 作者单位： | 山东省地震局 中国济南250021 |
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| 摘 要： | 文章在３－５年较长时间尺度概率估计的前提下，力争对未来较短时期（１－２年）各区，带地震活动趋势进行定量分析，特别着重于地震总活动水平的比较及年量大震级的预测。
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| 关 键 词： | 华北地区 地震带 地震活动 统计 |
Statistical analysis on seismic tendency of recent future in North China |
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| Jiang Haikun Seismological Bureau of Shandong Province,Jinan ,China.Statistical analysis on seismic tendency of recent future in North China[J].Seismological and Geomagnetic Observation and Research,1993,14(5):47-51. |
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| Authors: | Jiang Haikun Seismological Bureau of Shandong Province Jinan China |
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| Institution: | Jiang Haikun Seismological Bureau of Shandong Province,Jinan 250021,China |
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| Abstract: | In this paper the seismic tendency of recent future in North China has been studied by a lot of statistical prediction methods, particularly for some seismic belts. The main thought of this paper is: on the base of probability estimate for a long time (about 3 -5 years ), the seismic tendency in North China and some seismic beltsfor a short time (about 1 -2 years ) will be studied quantitatively, especially comparing of the total level of seismic activity and predicting of the maximum magnitude yearly. |
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| Keywords: | North China fenwei seismic belt fuzzy grey GM(1 1)threshold autoregressive model |
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