RAINFALL CHANGE AND ITS IMPLICATIONS FOR BELG HARVEST IN SOUTH WOLLO, ETHIOPIA

Most farmers in the Ethiopian highlands depend on rain‐fed agriculture. Some areas have the favourable situation of having two rainy seasons, Belg (February‐May) and the long rainy season Kiremt (June‐October), which is the case in some parts of South Wollo. Tef (Eragrostis tef) is the staple crop that farmers prefer to grow and the 90‐day variety is suitable for growing during the short rainy season. One out of eight Ethiopians lives in tef potential areas which have Belg rainfall. The aim in this study is to analyse rainfall variation in South Wollo, in particular the area east of the small town of Hayk, and to study its effect on the ability to grow tef during the Belg season. Results from interviews showed that a more difficult farming situation had emerged during the past 40 years, largely due to deterioration of physical resources such as rainfall. Rainfall is analysed by comparing daily rainfall data from four stations in two periods, 1963 to 1982 and 1984 to 2003, for changes in totals, seasonal distribution and variability. Coefficient of variance, rainy days, rainfall intensity and dry spells were analysed. Results from this study show that there have been minor rainfall changes but greater rainfall variability. During fieldwork key informants were asked if they were able to harvest tef during the past nine years, a period that has been used in a model of rainfall influence on tef cultivation during the Belg season. In both 20–year periods, farmers were able to grow tef every second year. In spite of a greater variability in rainfall the farmers proved their knowledge and flexibility and were able to harvest tef in the same number of years during both periods.