Sensitivity of agricultural production to climatic change

Although the range of cultivated species is relatively restricted, domestic plants and animals exhibit considerable resilience to stochastic shocks, and the study of their ecological adaptability and critical physiological and phenological requirements is a valuable first step in determining their possible response to climatic change. Methods of assessing agroclimatic suitability and their limitations are discussed, and suggestions are made for simulating the probable impact of shifts in the main climatic parameters on the productivity and spatial distribution of key crops and livestock. Some regions and crops are climatically more vulnerable than others: some regions (in particular North America) are strategically more critical to the stability of world food supplies, while in others resources for agricultural production are under more severe pressure.As well as attempts to forecast long-term climatic trends and their effects on agriculture, combating climatic variability merits high priority. This is an ever-present source of instability in production and could be enhanced in association with changing climate. Its magnitude differs widely among crops and geographical regions, but its impact from year to year is often greater than that predicted from climatic change even in extreme scenarios. The paper indicates a number of potentially desirable areas for action and suggests that several of these would be beneficial both as a buffer against short-term effects of variability and as a means of combating climatic change.