上海复合极端风暴洪水淹没模拟

河口三角洲和沿海城市面临着台风、暴雨、高潮位和上游下泄洪水叠加的“四碰头”复合极端风暴洪水的严重威胁。构建了大气-海洋-陆地相耦合的一体化数值模拟系统,实现了上海市“风”“暴”“潮”“洪”多灾种复合情景的极端洪涝淹没模拟,并验证了耦合方法的有效性,为复合风暴洪水的一体化模拟提供了一套可行的数值模拟方法。在9711台风影响下,模拟了1998年堤防升级改造后淹没面积(水深>0.2m)比改造前减少了62%,表明沿海沿江堤防设施建设在上海市防台防汛中起着关键性的作用。复合极端风暴洪水的有效模拟可为财产保险和未来市政规划提供参考。

Simulation of extreme compound coastal flooding in Shanghai

Estuary deltas and coastal cities are facing with the rising risk of the compound flooding due to the coincidence of storm surge,extreme precipitation,high tide and high river discharge. A new integrated numerical modeling system,which coupled atmosphere,ocean and coast processes,was developed to simulate the extreme compound coastal flooding (including four threats of flooding) in Shanghai. The new developed model was calibrated to provide a valid numerical solution for the integrated compound flooding simulation. The results showed that flooding area (inundation depth > 0.2 m) was reduced by approximately 62% after the enhancement of seawall and levee in 1998. Therefore,it is concluded that seawall and levee construction plays a key role in coastal flooding prevention in Shanghai. The accurate simulation of extreme compound coastal flooding provides rational information for the future planning of property insurance and city development.