基于多学科物理观测的地震概率预测方法在川滇地区的应用

川滇地区是我国地震灾害最为严重的地区之一，地震灾害评估对该地区的防震减灾具有重要意义，概率地震危险性分析是量化地震危险性的有效手段.这一方法要求使用可获得的最佳资料来计算地震的长期发生率.通过对比美国加州地区与我国川滇地区积累的资料发现，目前川滇地区的资料积累水平与加州地区正在使用的第三版加州地震破裂预测模型（UCERF3）的要求还有差距，但已可进行多学科综合地震概率计算.通过收集川滇地区地震地质、大地测量和测震学等资料，计算了川滇菱形块体及周边地区不同震级地震的长期发生率，在此基础上给出了未来30年泊松与非泊松分布下峰值地表加速度超越概率的分布.结果显示，在目标峰值加速度较低时，鲜水河断裂带、安宁河断裂带、则木河断裂带、小江断裂带、红河断裂带和小金河断裂带等川滇菱形块体主要边界带均具有较高的超越概率；在目标峰值加速度较高时，川滇菱形块体东边界的鲜水河断裂带、小江断裂带北段和南段以及莲峰—昭通断裂带仍具有较高的超越概率，但其中安宁河断裂带、则木河断裂带和小江断裂带中段概率相对较低.最后通过将本研究的结果与前人结果对比，讨论了结果异同的原因.

Probabilistic forecasting of earthquakes based on multidisciplinary physical observations and its application in Sichuan and Yunnan

Sichuan and Yunnan are among the areas with most severe seismic hazard in China, thus hazard estimation is significant to earthquake prevention and disaster reduction. Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis is an effective tool for quantifying seismic hazard, which requires the "best available science" to calculate the mean rate of earthquakes. Compared with data in California, the data in Sichuan and Yunnan is somehow limited, which is insufficient to build a counterpart of the currently used third version of Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast model (UCERF3). However, it is adequate to carry out a multidisciplinary approach. By gathering geologic, geodetic and seismologic data in the area, we calculated the magnitude-frequency distribution. By applying Poisson and Non-Poisson model, we obtained the patterns of peak ground acceleration (PGA) exceeding rate. The result show that, when the target PGA is low, the main boundaries of Sichuan and Yunnan Diamond Zone all have high exceeding rate, such as Xianshuihe Fault Zone, Anninghe Fault Zone, Zemuhe Fault Zone, Xiaojiang Fault Zone, Honghe Fault Zone and Xiaojinhe Fault Zone; when the target PGA is high, Xianshuihe Fault Zone, Northern and Southern sections of Xiaojiang Fault Zone and Lianfeng-Zhaotong Fault Zone in the eastern boundary of Sichuan and Yunnan Diamond Zone still have moderate to high exceeding rate, but the rates in Anninghe Fault Zone, Zemuhe Fault Zone and central section of Xiaojiang Fault Zone are relatively low. Finally, we compared the result of our research with that of predecessors, and discussed the possible reasons of differences and similarities between the results.