基于水库群预报调度的黄河流域干旱应对系统

为有效应对日益严重的流域干旱问题,有必要开展面向干旱全过程的黄河流域干旱应对系统研究。基于干旱演变过程设计了干旱指数,通过天气预报模型、回归分析等进行干旱、需水与径流预报;设置多年调节水库旱限水位,实现水资源年际补偿;识别洪水和泥沙分期特征,采用分期汛限水位增加洪水资源利用量;建立了梯级水库群协同优化调度模型,调配抗旱水源。算例结果显示:黄河流域干旱应对系统能够平衡年际间的干旱损失以避免重度破坏,与实际情况相比,在重旱的2014年增加抗旱水源22.40亿m^3。建立的干旱应对系统已应用于黄河流域抗旱实践,提升了流域应对干旱的水资源调控能力。

Yellow River basin drought response system based on the prediction and operation of cascade reservoirs

To handle increasingly severe basin-scale drought systematically,this study develops the Yellow River basin drought response system facing the entire process of drought. A drought index is designed based on the evolution of drought. Drought,water demand,and runoff are forecast using the Weather Research and Forecasting model and regression analysis. The drought limit water level is set in the multiyear regulating storage reservoir to realize interannual compensation of water resources. After the characteristics of flood and sediment stages are identified,the staged flood limit water level is applied to increase the utilization of flood resources. A synergetic optimal operation model of cascade reservoirs is developed to allocate water resources in order to resist drought. The case study indicates that the drought response system in the Yellow River basin can prevent severe damage from drought by balancing the damage among different years. Compared with the actual situation,this system could increase 2.24 billion m³ of the water supply in 2014 when severe drought occurred. The drought response system has been applied in the Yellow River basin,enhancing the capacity for regulating basin-scale water resources to handle drought.