Assessment of uncertainty sources in water quality modeling in the Niagara River

This paper presents a framework to quantify the overall variability of the model estimations of Total Polychlorinated Biphenyls (Total PCBs) concentrations in the Niagara River on the basis of the uncertainty of few model parameters and the natural variability embedded in some of the model input variables. The results of the uncertainty analysis are used to understand the importance of stochastic model components and their effect on the overall reliability of the model output and to evaluate multiple sources of uncertainty that might need to be further studied. The uncertainty analysis is performed using a newly developed point estimate method, the Modified Rosenblueth method. The water quality along the Niagara River is simulated by coupling two numerical models the Environmental Fluid Dynamic Code (EFDC) – for the hydrodynamic portion of the study and the Water Quality Analysis and Simulation Program (WASP) – for the fate and transport of contaminants. For the monitoring period from May 1995 to March 1997, the inflow Total PCBs concentration from Lake Erie is the stochastic component that most influences the variability of the modeling results for the simulated concentrations at the exit of the Niagara River. Other significant stochastic components in order are as follows: the suspended sediments concentration, the point source loadings and to a minor degree the atmospheric deposition, the flow and the non-point source loadings. Model results that include estimates of uncertainty provide more comprehensive information about the variability of contaminant concentrations, such as confidence intervals, and, in general offer a better approach to compare model results with measured data.