| 利用大地形变资料进行强震危险区圈定的一个数学方法 |
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| 引用本文： | 刘鼎文,鲁家珍,巩守文,崔笃信.利用大地形变资料进行强震危险区圈定的一个数学方法[J].大地测量与地球动力学,1994(4). |
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| 作者姓名： | 刘鼎文 鲁家珍 巩守文 崔笃信 |
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| 作者单位： | 国家地震局地震研究所，国家地震局第二地形变监测中心 |
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| 摘 要： | 利用大地形变资料进行地震危险区圈定尚无有效办法。本文提出一种由椭圆脐点突变（Ｄ）模式用Ｗ值进行强震危险性判定，并在危险性判定基础上通过统计修订，圈定地震危险区的数学方法，推导了全部计算公式，并通过５个中强震实例验算，表明了方法的有效性。
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| 关 键 词： | 大地形变，强震危险区测定，突变模式，统计修订 |
MATHEMATICAL METHOD TO DETERMINE STRONG EARTHQUAKE RISK AREAS BY USE OF GEODETIC DEFORMATION DATA |
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| Liu Dingwen and Lu Jiazhen.MATHEMATICAL METHOD TO DETERMINE STRONG EARTHQUAKE RISK AREAS BY USE OF GEODETIC DEFORMATION DATA[J].Journal of Geodesy and Geodynamics,1994(4). |
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| Authors: | Liu Dingwen and Lu Jiazhen |
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| Abstract: | At present,there is no effective method to determine strong earthquake risk areas by use of geodetic deformation data. In this paper,with the aid of the Elliptic Umbilic Catastrophe Model(D/SUB4/)and W-value judgement,we have put forward a mathematical method to judge strong earthquake risk and determine earthquake risk areas through statistical correction and have derived all related calculation formulae.Meanwhile,the deformation data related to five moderate earthquake are calculated in this paper and good results obtained. It will be seen that the method mentioned in this paper is effective. |
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| Keywords: | geodetic deformation determination of earthquake risk areas catatrophe model statistical correction |
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