福贡县土地利用变化及演变趋势分析

以云南省福贡县1989、1999、2004年TM、ETM系列遥感数据作数据源，在RS和GIS技术支持下对研究区域1989-2004年的土地利用数量变化、变化速度、土地利用程度变化等方面进行分析；在此基础上，选用马尔柯夫模型对福贡县2010-2025年土地利用的动态演变趋势进行预测。结果表明，农业用地迅猛增加，而天然林、草甸草地、水体在缓慢减少；天然林的减少主要转化为农业用地、灌木林、草甸草地。经预测表明，福贡县2010-2025年建筑用地、冰川积雪、未利用土地的面积将基本不变；人工林面积将增加；农业用地、天然林、灌木林、草甸草地的面积将减少；水体面积变化较小。

ANALYSIS OF LAND USE CHANGE AND ITS EVOLVING TENDENCY IN FUGONG COUNTY

According to the RS dates from the TM and ETM imagines of 1989, 1999 and 2004,base on RS and GIS, analysis Number change and variational speed of Land Use and change ratio of Land Use extent from 1989 to 2004 in Fugong County.On this base, forecast evolving tendency of land use from 2010 to 2025 by Markov chain model.The findings can be explained as following： The rapid increase in agricultural land, and natural forest, meadow grass, water slowly reduced. The decrease mainly natural forests into agricultural land, shrub forest, meadow grass. The Froecast suggest that, in Fugong County ,form 2010 to 2025, construction land, glacier snow, Unused Land will remain basically unchanged; plantation area will increase; agricultural land, natural forest, bush and grass meadow area will be reduced ; smaller changes in the water body area.