河北省黄骅沿海海平面变化分析及预测

河北省黄骅沿海海平面时间序列资料短,难以据此对海平面变化做出全面分析评价。本文用回归分析方法,对黄骅现有海平面实测资料与邻近的塘沽沿海相对应的海平面资料进行相关分析,建立回归方程,并用已建立的回归方程及塘沽历史实测海平面时间序列,推算出黄骅历史海平面时间序列,进而分析了黄骅海平面变化特征,预测了未来海平面可能达到的高度。分析结果表明:黄骅沿海海平面1951-2013年呈长期波动上升趋势,变化速率为3.3 mm/a;1980-2013年上升加快,变化年速率为7.0 mm/a;20世纪90年代至2013年上升更进一步加快。可为黄骅沿海城市规划、滨岸工程设计和防灾减灾提供参考。

Analysis and Prediction of the Changes in Sea Level in Huanghua Coastal area of Hebei Province

The time series of sea level in Huanghua coastal area in Hebei province are short,and it is difficult to make a comprehensive analysis and evaluation the changes in sea level.In this paper,the regression analysis method is used to analyze the correlation between the existing sea level measured data in Huanghua and the sea level data corresponding to the adjacent Tanggu coastal area.The regression equation is established.Based on the established regression equation and the measured sea level time series in Tanggu,the historical sea level time series of Huanghua are calculated,and the characteristics of sea level variation in Huanghua are analyzed.The results show that the sea level in Huanghua coastal area fluctuates and rises for a long time from 1951 to 2013,and the annual rate of change is 3.3 mm per year.From 1980 to 2013,the rise accelerated,the annual rate of change is 7.0 mm per year,and the rise is further accelerated from 1990 s to 2013.At the same time,the possible height of sea level rise in the future is predicted,which can be used as a reference for coastal city planning,coastal engineering design and disaster prevention and mitigation in Huanghua.