Rip current-related fatalities in India: a new predictive risk scale for forecasting rip currents

This study analyzes fatalities caused by rip currents in important locations along east and west coasts of India for the period 2000–2010. Results include the frequency of fatalities from rip currents, their cause, and their spatial distributions. Rip current fatalities are most common in the southeastern India, with a non-uniform spatial distribution. August and October are identified as most favorable for rip current generation. In India, rip current-related drowning is estimated as 39 per year during the last decade. East coast of India averaged 30–40 drownings, and west coast of India averaged 5–10 drownings per year. In coastal Andhra Pradesh, more than 350 people had been drowned due to rip currents and only 10 people were rescued. Visakhapatnam recorded highest drowning (293); R. K. beach is the most vulnerable potential rip current zones. From 2007 onward, rip current deaths increased at an alarming rate. The frequency of rip current drownings increased markedly during shore-normal wave incidence and mid-low tidal stages. A new empirical forecasting technique has been developed for prediction of rip current risk in India for the first time. FORTRAN-based software was developed to generate automatic rip current forecast report for any given location. The scale’s performance was tested with field data and by using different statistical methods. The new predictive scale is predicting rip current occurrences reasonably well.