流域可持续性理想域和现实状态测度

可持续发展是当今世界各国公认的发展准则,但其概念的模糊性与测度方法的单一性阻碍了这一理念的有效应用。在水生态阈值、经济增长底限值和社会发展警戒值等共同约束下,水生态保护目标、经济增长目标与社会发展目标等多目标相互博弈而存在区间范围的基础上,提出了流域可持续性及其理想域的概念以及时间、空间、认知、子系统效益博弈关系、可行区间等决定要素。基于优化方法建立流域可持续性理想域测度模型,并以此为基准,提出了考虑流域系统内外相互作用现实状态的改进离差法测度模型。结果表明:流域可持续性理想域和现实状态测度模型更加符合实际情况,且能够反映流域内外的交互作用对可持续性的影响,为今后流域可持续发展评估提供了一种新思路和方法。

Measure model for ideal region and real status of watershed sustainability

Sustainable development is a widely accepted developing mode all over the world, but its vogue concept and simplified measure model hinder the practice of this idea.It is urgent to present a clear definition of this significant thought and propose a better assessment model.The concept of watershed sustainability and its ideal region are presented based on the relationship among the economic, social and aquatic ecological subsystems confined by each threshold.Besides, temporal scale, spatial scale, cognitive level, game relationship between different subsystems, and feasible interval are reckoned as the main factors in defining watershed sustainability.Considering the relationship between inside and outside watershed, an assessment model of sustainability on account of optimum programming is suggested to measure the gap between real status of an ideal region.The result indicates that the method is more effective and practical than in watershed scale, which provides a new idea and method for sustainability assessment.