湖南地区加权平均温度的影响因素分析及建模

利用湖南地区长沙、怀化、郴州3个探空站连续3 a（2012～2014年）的观测数据，以数值积分法计算的大气加权平均温度（Tm）作为参考值，分析Tm与地面气温Ts、水汽压es及大气压Ps之间的相关性，并基于最小二乘原理建立湖南地区多因子Tm模型。研究结果表明，Tm与地面温度Ts和水汽压es呈正相关性，与大气压Ps呈负相关；Bevis模型的Tm偏差主要分布在0～4 K之间，存在一定的系统偏差，而基于Ts单因子的Tm模型偏差主要分布在-2~3 K之间；双因子与三因子精度相当，但均优于单因子模型。总体而言，基于地面气温Ts和水汽压es的双因子Tm模型的精度优于基于Ts的单因子模型，更优于Bevis模型，适用于湖南地区的GPS气象研究及业务应用。

Influence Analysis of Multi-factor on Weighted Average Temperature and Its Modeling in Hunan Region

In this study, 3 consecutive years of radiosonde observation data since 2012 from three sites of Changsha, Huaihua and Chenzhou in Hunan province has been used to establish multi-factor Tm local models based on the numerical integration and least squares principle. The results showed that Tm has a positive correlation with ground temperature (Ts) and water vapor pressure (es) , while it has a negative correlation with atmospheric pressure (Ps). Compared with the bias of single-factor local Tm model (-2~3 K), the bias of Bevis model is mainly in 0~4 K, which means that Bevis model exists a system deviation in Hunan region. The research also reveals that the two-factor model and three-factor model have an approximate accuracy, but they are all better than single-factor model. Summarily, the two-factor local Tm model is better than single-factor model which is better the Bevis model at the same time. Therefore, it can be applied to researches and applications of GPS meteorology in Hunan region.