H市城区步行环境对两抢一盗警情的影响

以Walk Score、CGT模型为测度,用Pearson相关系数、广义线性模型、广义地理加权回归模型分析H市城区步行环境对两抢一盗警情的影响。研究发现：① H市城区可步行性对两抢一盗警情的影响可能以正相关作用为主,可步行性越好,两抢一盗警情案发次数可能越高。② 步行环境对于两抢一盗警情案发次数和嫌疑人居住地概率的影响可能均有空间异质性。在不同区域步行环境对两抢一盗案发次数与嫌疑人居住概率的影响各异。主要交通枢纽站及交通干道沿线区域步行环境较好,模型结果显示两抢一盗案发次数与嫌疑人居住概率也较高。具有较健全的安保系统,且对人员出入进行控制的高级酒店、商厦、旅游景区等区域步行环境较好,模型结果显示两抢一盗案发次数与嫌疑人居住概率较低。

Influence of Walking Environment on Robbery,Snatch and Theft Crime in Urban Area,H City,China

The urban space environment is an important factor for urban crimes. A greater walkability of city can reduce the crime rate in many Criminal Geography theories. However, there is few empirical studies in China. Previous studies on Criminal Geography paid more attention to the role of urban environment in crime prevention, and lack of attention to its auxiliary function of criminal investigation. This study built a multi-source spatial database by combining the theory of CPTED, Defensible Space, Criminal Behavior and Geographic Profiling. The municipal district of H city located in the southeastern coastal region of China was taken as a case study area. The Walk Score and criminal geographic targeting model were applied for the measurement. The Pearson correlation coefficient, generalized linear model, geographically weighted generalized linear regression model were used to analyze the impact of urban walking environment on robbery, snatch and theft crime (RST). The results showed that the walking environment probably has a positive effect on the RST crime in H city, the greater walkability, the more RST. The effects of walking environment probably has spatial heterogeneity features both on RST and the residence probability of suspects. There were different impacts of walking environment on the RST and the residence probability of suspects in different regions. The areas near the major transportation hubs or along the main road have great walking environment. However, they probably have more RST and higher residence probability of suspects than other places based on result of model. Although the high-grade hotels, commercial buildings and tourist attractions have great walking environment, there were low RST and the residence probability of suspects based on result of model due to the sound security and personnel access control system. This research provides a reference for prevention and investigation for robbery, snatch and theft crime.