气候变化与气候层次结构初探

应用相空间经验正交展开方法，分析了四川降水、温度局地气候变化的主要特征及与其层次结构的关系。结果表明：气候作为一个多层次复杂系统，其变化表现出明显的层次结构特征，气候突变多反映在较高层次结构上，非突变变化多属于较低层次结构；高层次决定了气候变化的基本形态，低层次存在反馈作用；正（负）反馈作用可加强（减弱）气候变化的突变性；气候突变的强度和时问具有一定的层次结构差异性。

CLIMATIC VARIATION AND PRINMARY STUDY OF ITS HIERARCHIC STRUCTURES

Using phase space empirical orthogonal function method, the characteristics of the rain fall and temperature variations and their hierarchical structures are analyzed in Sichuan. It is Shown that being a multi-hiermrchy system. the change the change of climate ehibit obvious hierarchical stucture.The climatic jumps are more feflected at the higher hierarchy and non-jumps at the lower hierarchy.The changes at the higher hierarchy represent the basic rtend of chimate change The lower hierarchy feeds back to the higher climatic hierarchy.The positive (negative) feedback will strengthen (weaken),climatic jumps. The intensity and time of climatic jumps have defimile differences between different hierarchies.