BET_VH: exploring the influence of natural uncertainties on long-term hazard from tephra fallout at Campi Flegrei (Italy) |
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Authors: | Jacopo Selva Antonio Costa Warner Marzocchi Laura Sandri |
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Institution: | (1) Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Bologna, Italy;(2) Osservatorio Vesuviano, Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Napoli, Italy;(3) Department of Earth Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK;(4) Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Rome 1, Italy; |
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Abstract: | In this paper, we explore the effects of the intrinsic uncertainties upon long-term volcanic hazard by analyzing tephra fall
hazard at Campi Flegrei, Italy, using the BET_VH model described in Marzocchi et al. (Bull Volcanol, 2010). The results obtained show that volcanic hazard based on the weighted average of all possible eruptive settings (i.e. size
classes and vent locations) is significantly different from an analysis based on a single reference setting, as commonly used
in volcanic hazard practice. The long-term hazard map for tephra fall at Campi Flegrei obtained here accounts for a wide spectrum
of uncertainties which are usually neglected, largely reducing the bias intrinsically introduced by the choice of a specific
reference setting. We formally develop and apply a general method to recursively integrate simulations from different models
which have different characteristics in terms of spatial coverage, resolution and physical details. This outcome of simulations
will be eventually merged with field data through the use of the BET_VH model. |
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