Consistency in hurricane surface wind forecasting: an improved parametric model |
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Authors: | Kelin Hu Qin Chen Sytske K Kimball |
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Institution: | (1) Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Louisiana State University, 3418 Patrick F. Taylor Hall, Baton Rouge, LA 70803, USA;(2) State Key Laboratory of Estuarine and Coastal Research, East China Normal University, Shanghai, China;(3) Department of Earth Sciences, University of South Alabama, Mobile, AL, USA |
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Abstract: | A parametric hurricane wind model has been developed based on the asymmetric Holland-type vortex model. The model creates
a two-dimensional surface wind field based on the National Hurricane Center forecast (or observed) hurricane wind and track
data. Three improvements have been made to retain consistency between the input parameters and the model output and to better
resolve the asymmetric structure of the hurricane. First, in determination of the shape parameter B, the Coriolis effect is included and the range restriction is removed. It is found that ignoring the Coriolis effect can
lead to an error greater than 20% in the maximum wind speed for weak but large tropical cyclones. Second, the effect of the
translational velocity of a hurricane is excluded from the input of specified wind speeds before applying the Holland-type
vortex to avoid exaggeration of the wind asymmetry. The translational velocity is added back in at the very end of the procedure.
Third, a new method has been introduced to develop a weighted composite wind field that makes full use of all wind parameters,
not just the largest available specified wind speed and its 4-quadrant radii. An idealized hurricane and two historical Gulf
of Mexico hurricanes have been used to test the model. It is found that the modified parametric model leads to better agreement
with field observation compared with the results from the unmodified model. This will result in better predictions of hurricane
waves and storm surges. |
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