Cyclonic microzonation |
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Authors: | Pradeep K Goyal T K Datta |
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Institution: | (1) Govt. Engineering College, Ajmer, Rajasthan, India;(2) Department of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Delhi, Hauz Khas, New Delhi, 110016, India |
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Abstract: | A procedure for cyclonic microzonation of coastal regions with the help of the cyclone track records is outlined using a sound
method of statistical forecast and finding wind speed at a site with the help of standard wind field model. The procedure
can be adopted for regions where directly measured wind speeds are scarce like, coastal regions of the developing and under
developed countries. For the purpose of microzonation, the regions along with the available cyclone tracks are mapped using
GIS. The area is then divided into a number of grids. The centre of the grid (site) is taken as the centre of the circle of
influence. The cyclonic wind speeds at the site are estimated from the tracks falling within the influence circle. Distribution
of the cyclonic wind speed at the site is then obtained from the estimated cyclonic wind speeds. Assuming the arrival of cyclone
to be a Poisson process, a cyclone hazard curve, denoting the annual probability of exceedance versus cyclonic wind speed
is determined. From the hazard curves drawn for different sites of the region, cyclonic microzonation map is prepared for
different return periods of the cyclonic wind speed. The procedure is illustrated by applying it to microzone a very crucial
coastal region of Andhra Pradesh in India, for which cyclone track records are available. |
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