Stochastic bivariate time series models of waves in the North Sea and their application in simulation-based design |
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| Institution: | 1. Faculty of Technology and Maritime Science, University of Southeast Norway, Tønsberg, Norway;2. Department of Mathematical Sciences and Technology, Norwegian University of Life Sciences, Ås, Norway;1. School of Naval Architecture and Ocean Engineering, Dalian Maritime University, Dalian, Liaoning Proveince, PR China;2. State Key Laboratory of Ocean Engineering, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai, PR China;1. Department of Civil and Earth Resources Engineering, Graduate School of Engineering, Kyoto University, Japan;2. Institute for Risk and Reliability, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Germany / Institute for Risk and Uncertainty, University of Liverpool, UK / Shanghai Institute of Disaster Prevention and Relief, Tongji University, China;3. School of Civil Engineering and Mechanics, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, China;4. Centre for Marine Technology and Ocean Engineering (CENTEC), Instituto Superior Técnico, Universidade de Lisboa, Portugal;1. Federal Institute of São Paulo (IFSP), São João da Boa Vista, SP, Brazil;2. State University of Campinas (UNICAMP), Campinas, SP, Brazil;3. University of São Paulo (USP), São Carlos, SP, Brazil;1. Centre for Autonomous Marine Operations and systems (NTNU AMOS), NTNU, Trondheim, Norway;2. Department of Marine Technology, NTNU, Trondheim, Norway;3. DNV GL, Veritasveien 1, Høvik, Norway;1. Institute for Systems Engineering and Computers at Coimbra – INESC Coimbra, Polo II, Coimbra, 3030-290, Portugal;2. Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, University of Coimbra, Polo II, Coimbra, 3030-290, Portugal;3. Centre for Mechanical Technology and Automation, Department of Mechanical Engineering, University of Aveiro, Campus de Santiago, Aveiro, 3810-193, Portugal;4. Centre for Process Systems Engineering, Department of Chemical Engineering, University College London, London, WC1E 7JE, UK;5. Institute for Process Systems Engineering and Sustainability, Pazmany Peter Catholic University, Budapest, 1088, Hungary |
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| Abstract: | In this paper, we present and evaluate three long-term wave models for application in simulation-based design of ships and marine structures. Designers and researchers often rely on historical weather data as a source for ocean area characteristics based on hindcast datasets or in-situ measurements. The limited access and size of historical datasets reduces repeatability of simulations and analyses, making it difficult to assess the sampling variability of performance and loads on marine vessels and structures. Markov, VAR and VARMA wave models, producing independent long-term time series of significant wave height (Hs) and spectral peak period (Tp), is presented as possible solutions to this problem. The models are tested and compared by addressing how the models affect interpretation of design concepts and the ability to replicate statistical and physical characteristics of the wave process. Our results show that the VAR and VARMA models perform sufficiently in describing design performance, but does not capture the physical process fully. The Markov model is found to perform worst of the tested models in the applied tests, especially for measures covering several consecutive sea states. |
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| Keywords: | Significant wave height Spectral peak period Stochastic time series modelling Simulation-based design |
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