北京地区细菌性痢疾医疗气象预报模式及流行风险水平评估

研究了北京市海淀区2004～2006年全年逐日细菌性痢疾发病率与地面气象要素的相关关系.结果发现,细菌性痢疾发病与水汽压(空气绝对湿度)高度相关,单相关系数平均可达0.85以上.在所有候选预报因子中,它的方差贡献可占80%.采用多元回归概率分级技术,建立了细菌性痢疾医疗气象预报及风险水平评估模式.该模式预报结果可为各级疾病预防控制中心指导广大城乡居民卫生防疫提供科学依据.

The Basic Research of Medical Meteorology Forecast Model of Bacillary Dysentery and Its Risk Valuation in Beijing Area

The relationship between the grounded meteorological elements and the daily incidence of bacillary dys-entery in Haidian District of Beijing from 2004 to 2006 has been studied The result shows that the incidence of bac-illary dysentery is highly related with the vapor pressure (absolute humlidity),and the simple correlation coefficient is over 0.85 averagely.Compared with all the selected elements, the contribution of variance can reach 80%. The forecast of bacillary dysentery and the mode of risk identification are established by using the classification technolo-gy of multivariate regression The forecast model can provide scientific basis for the centers of disease control and prevention at all levels, which are in charge of sanitation and epidmic prevention for the urban and rural residents.