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基于客源地的聚类-ARIMA模型的短期旅游需求预测--以天津欢乐谷主题公园为例
引用本文:段莉琼,宫辉力,刘少俊,刘泽华,李勇永,葛军莲.基于客源地的聚类-ARIMA模型的短期旅游需求预测--以天津欢乐谷主题公园为例[J].地域研究与开发,2017,36(3).
作者姓名:段莉琼  宫辉力  刘少俊  刘泽华  李勇永  葛军莲
作者单位:1. 首都师范大学 资源环境与旅游学院,北京 100048;国家旅游局信息中心,北京 100740;2. 首都师范大学 资源环境与旅游学院,北京,100048;3. 南京师范大学地理科学学院,南京,210023;4. 南京大学 地理与海洋科学学院,南京,210093
基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目,国家旅游局青年专家培养计划项目
摘    要:大多数旅游需求预测研究是基于目的地游客总数或消费总量开展的,尚未按不同的旅游目的或客源地细分进行预测.以天津欢乐谷主题公园为案例地,选择2014年第40周到2015年第26周为研究时段,利用通信大数据,提出了一种面向客源地的聚类-ARIMA组合预测模型.通过对不同客源地的时序数据进行聚类,选取各类别中的代表性客源地分别构建ARIMA预测模型.结果表明:对欢乐谷主题公园各客源地分别建模与聚类后通过6个代表客源地建模得到的结果一致;后者可以降低80%的预测成本.该方法具有较高的预测精度和较低的计算成本,适合面向客源地的短期旅游需求预测,可为旅游目的地提供更具针对性的旅游需求管理、分析与决策支撑.

关 键 词:短期旅游需求预测  客源地  时间序列聚类  ARIMA模型  天津欢乐谷主题公园

Short-term Forecasting Tourism Demand Based on Origin's Hierarchical Clustering ARMA Model: A Case Study of Tianjin Happy Valley Theme Park
Duan Liqiong,Gong Huili,Liu Shaojun,Liu Zehua,Li Yongyong,Ge Junlian.Short-term Forecasting Tourism Demand Based on Origin's Hierarchical Clustering ARMA Model: A Case Study of Tianjin Happy Valley Theme Park[J].Areal Research and Development,2017,36(3).
Authors:Duan Liqiong  Gong Huili  Liu Shaojun  Liu Zehua  Li Yongyong  Ge Junlian
Abstract:Most of the tourism demand forecast studies are based on the total number of tourists or the total consumption of the destination, and has not yet been forecasted according to different destination or tourist origin.This paper proposes a time-series clustering-ARIMA for the tourist origin based on the large data of communication by selecting the Tianjin Happy Valley Theme Park as a case and taking the 40th week of 2014 to the 26th week of 2015 as a studied time period.The time series data of the different tourist origin are classified by time series clustering method.The typical tourist origin of different type are selected to build the respective ARIMA prediction model.The results show that the modeling of the typical tourist origin after clustering are consistent with the modeling of the different tourist origin.The cost of forecasting can be reduced by 80% by the modeling of the typical tourist origin.This method has higher prediction accuracy and lower computational cost.It is suitable for short-term tourism demand forecasting and can provide more targeted tourism demand management, analysis and decision support for tourism destination.
Keywords:short-term tavel demand forecasting model  tourist origin  time-series clustering  ARIMA  Tianjin Happy Valley Theme Parky
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