基于未确知测度的区域旅游风险危险性评价——以湖北省恩施土家族苗族自治州为例

从突发危机事件、旅游生态风险、旅游经济风险、旅游文化风险、旅游社会风险、旅游安全风险6个方面遴选出42项指标构建区域旅游风险因素识别指标体系。采用未确知数学方法、专家咨询法,从风险可能性和风险危害性两个方面构建区域旅游风险危险性评价模型,并对湖北省恩施土家族苗族自治州旅游发展中的风险进行综合评价。结果表明:在恩施州所面临的6大类旅游风险中,危险性程度最高的是旅游经济风险,其次是旅游文化风险。在42项风险因素中,自然灾害、旅游发展战略失误及盲目旅游开发导致的长期利益受损、旅游业导致的民族文化商品化/原真性丧失、旅游业导致的交通及人口拥挤等,对恩施州而言是危险性程度最高的几项风险因素。

Tourism Risk Dangerousness Evaluation Based on Uncertainty Measure: Enshi Prefecture of Hubei Province as An Example

Firstly,the article chose 42 risk factors to establish an index system of regional tourism risk factors identification from six aspects of sudden crisis,ecological,economical,cultural,social and safety risks.Secondly,constructed a tourism risk evaluation model based on the uncertainty measure theory and expert consultation,considering both the risk possibility and risk perniciousness.Then evaluated tourism risks of Enshi Autonomous Prefecture by the model established comprehensively.The results show that:of the six categories of tourism risks faced in Enshi Autonomous Prefecture,tourism economic risk is in the highest degree of dangerousness,followed by tourism cultural risk.Of the 42 risk factors,natural disasters,long-term benefits damage caused by the tourism development strategic mistakes and blind tourism development,commercialization and authenticity loss of ethic culture caused by tourism,traffic and population congestion caused by tourism,etc.are of the highest level of dangerourness for Enshi Autonomous Prefecture.