Susceptibility assessment of landslides caused by the wenchuan earthquake using a logistic regression model |
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Authors: | Fenghuan Su Peng Cui Jianqiang Zhang Lingzhi Xiang |
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Institution: | (1) Graduate School of Environmental Science, Hokkaido University, Sapporo, Japan |
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Abstract: | The Wenchuan earthquake on May 12, 2008 caused numerous collapses, landslides, barrier lakes, and debris flows. Landslide
susceptibility mapping is important for evaluation of environmental capacity and also as a guide for post-earthquake reconstruction.
In this paper, a logistic regression model was developed within the framework of GIS to map landslide susceptibility. Qingchuan
County, a heavily affected area, was selected for the study. Distribution of landslides was prepared by interpretation of
multi-temporal and multi-resolution remote sensing images (ADS40 aerial imagery, SPOT5 imagery and TM imagery, etc.) and field
surveys. The Certainly Factor method was used to find the influencial factors, indicating that lithologic groups, distance
from major faults, slope angle, profile curvature, and altitude are the dominant factors influencing landslides. The weight
of each factor was determined using a binomial logistic regression model. Landslide susceptibility mapping was based on spatial
overlay analysis and divided into five classes. Major faults have the most significant impact, and landslides will occur most
likely in areas near the faults. Onethird of the area has a high or very high susceptibility, located in the northeast, south
and southwest, including 65.3% of all landslides coincident with the earthquake. The susceptibility map can reveal the likelihood
of future failures, and it will be useful for planners during the rebuilding process and for future zoning issues. |
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Keywords: | Landslide susceptibility Wenchuan Earthquake GIS logistic regression certainty factor |
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