基于SPCA和AHP联合方法的滦河流域生态环境脆弱性变化规律分析

基于生态敏感性-生态恢复力-生态压力度概念模型评价体系，选取表征地形、地表、气象、土壤、植被及社会经济因子的15项多系统评价指标，应用空间主成分分析（SPCA）与层次分析（AHP）联合方法，对滦河流域1985年、1995年和2005年3期生态环境进行脆弱性评价，并进行量化分级，获得流域生态环境脆弱性变化规律和成因机制。结果表明：流域整体脆弱性等级有减小趋势，潜在脆弱区域面积逐渐增大，而重度脆弱区域明显减小；西北山地和冀东沿海地区变化较为剧烈；人类活动已经取代自然条件，成为影响滦河流域生态系统的关键因子；流域人口的快速增长、气候条件的改变以及土地资源的不合理利用是区域脆弱性变化的主要驱动力。

Regularity Analysis of Eco-Environmental Vulnerability in Luanhe Basin Based on SPCA and AHP

Based on the ecological sensitivity-resilience-pressure (SRP) conceptual model, methods of spatial principal component analysis (SPCA) and analytic hierarchy process (AHP) were combined to evaluate and classify the vulnerabilities of the eco-environment of Luanhe basin in 1985, 1995 and 2005, and 15 multiple systems evaluation indexes including topography, geomorphology, atmosphere, soil, vegetation and social economy were taken into account in this evaluation.  Ecological environmental vulnerability variation and genetic mechanism were obtained.The results showed that vulnerability level of Luanhe basin tended to be low, potentially vulnerable area was expanded and severe vulnerable area was reduced. Meanwhile eco-environmental vulnerability of northwest mountainous regions and jidong coastal areas changed acutely. Human activities had exceeded natural conditions and become the key factor which impacted ecosystem of Luanhe basin. The primary driving force were rapid growth of the population, change of weather conditions and irrational utilization of land resources.