| 利用TMI资料估计西北太平洋热带气旋强度的客观方法 |
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| 引用本文： | 周顺武,卢怡,赵兵科,鲁小琴,丁锋,陈丽营. 利用TMI资料估计西北太平洋热带气旋强度的客观方法[J]. 大气科学学报, 2015, 38(3): 407-413 |
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| 作者姓名： | 周顺武 卢怡 赵兵科 鲁小琴 丁锋 陈丽营 |
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| 作者单位： | 南京信息工程大学气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心;中国气象局上海物资管理处;中国气象局上海台风研究所;青岛市气象灾害防御工程技术研究中心;宁安市气象局 |
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| 基金项目： | 山东省气象局课题(2014sdqx01);中国气象局河南省农业气象重点实验室开放基金项目(AMF201403);国家重点基础研究发展规划项目(2012CB955204);国家自然科学基金资助项目(41275111);江苏省青蓝工程项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 利用2007—2009年热带降雨测量卫星(TRMM)微波成像仪(TMI)观测的亮温资料,建立一种西北太平洋热带气旋强度(Tropical Cyclone,TC)的估计模型,对2010年热带气旋进行独立估计试验,并对估计误差进行分析。结果表明:该模型对强度小于强台风TC的拟合效果较好,均方根误差约为5 m/s,平均绝对误差约为4 m/s;对强台风和超强台风TC的拟合误差较大,均方根误差分别为9.65和6.60 m/s,平均绝对误差分别为7.76和5.49 m/s;对强台风及以上强度的TC,模型的拟合误差在日(夜)间减小(增大),误差最小(大)值为6.00 m/s(11.96 m/s),说明估计值在日(夜)间偏大(小)。
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| 关 键 词： | 热带气旋强度 TRMM/TMI 亮温 逐步回归 |
| 收稿时间： | 2013-05-14 |
| 修稿时间： | 2014-06-05 |
An objective method to estimate tropical cyclone intensity over Northwest Pacific using TRMM/TMI data |
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| ZHOU Shun-wu,LU Yi,ZHAO Bing-ke,LU Xiao-qin,DING Feng and CHEN Li-ying. An objective method to estimate tropical cyclone intensity over Northwest Pacific using TRMM/TMI data[J]. Transactions of Atmospheric Sciences, 2015, 38(3): 407-413 |
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| Authors: | ZHOU Shun-wu LU Yi ZHAO Bing-ke LU Xiao-qin DING Feng CHEN Li-ying |
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| Affiliation: | Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, NUIST, Nanjing 210044, China;Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, NUIST, Nanjing 210044, China;Shanghai Supply and Delivery Division of China Meteorological Administration, Shanghai 200050, China;Shanghai Typhoon Institute of China Meteorological Administration, Shanghai 200030, China;Shanghai Typhoon Institute of China Meteorological Administration, Shanghai 200030, China;Qingdao Engineering Technology Research Center of Meteorological Disaster Prevention, Qingdao 266003, China;Ning''an Meteorological Bureau, Ning''an 157400, China |
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| Abstract: | Using the brightness temperature(TB) data of TRMM Microwave Imager(TMI) from 2007 to 2010,this paper establishes a method for estimating the intensity of tropical cyclone(TC) in Northwest Pacific,and tropical cyclones in 2010 are tested independently.Results show that the model fits well for those TCs,which are weaker than severe typhoon,with RMSE of about 5 m/s and mean absolute error of about 4 m/s.For theose TCs with strength between severe typhoon and super typhoon,the fitting error is bigger,with RMSEs of 9.65 and 6.60 m/s,and mean absolute error of 7.76 and 5.49 m/s,respectively.For theose TCs with intensity of strong typhoon and above,the fitting error in daytime(nighttime) decreases(increases),with minimum(maximum) error of 6 m/s(11.96 m/s),indicating that the estimate value is large(small) in daytime(nighttime). |
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| Keywords: | tropic cyclone intensity TRMM/TMI brightness temperature stepwise regression |
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