A River Water Quality Model for Chlorophyll and Dissolved Oxygen that Accommodates Zebra Mussel Metabolism

The development, testing and application of a dynamic two-dimensional (longitudinal-vertical) mass balance model for dissolved oxygen (DO) and chlorophyll (Chl) for rivers is documented that for the first time accommodates both the oxygen demand and filtering effects of zebra mussels. The test system is a phytoplankton-rich section ( 15 km long) of the Seneca River, NY, that is believed to represent an upper bound of the impact of this exotic invader. Changes in common measures of water quality of the river brought about by the zebra mussel invasion are reviewed and related longitudinal patterns in DO, Chl, and Secchi disc transparency are documented. Model testing is supported by comprehensive measurements of DO, Chl, and various forcing conditions over a three-month period, and independent determinations of several model coefficients. Wide variations in the areal consumption rate of DO (ZOD; g·m^–2·d^–1) and filtering rate (m³·m^–2·d^–1) of zebra mussels, as determined through model calibration, occurred over the study period. Values of ZOD in areas with dense zebra mussel populations at times (e.g., > 50 g·m^–2·d^–1) were an order of magnitude greater than the sediment oxygen demand associated with organically enriched deposits. The value of determinations of these fluxes from model calibration procedures is evaluated within the context of the limitations of protocols presently available to support independent specification of these rates. Model analyses are conducted to evaluate the relative magnitude of source and sink processes for DO and Chl, the potential operation and implications of feedback from low DO levels on oxygen consumption by zebra mussels, and the sensitivity of model simulations to selected sources of uncertainty and variability. Model projections of oxygen resources of the river are presented in a probabilistic format in evaluating reductions in zebra mussel biomass that would be necessary to eliminate violations of standards and regain assimilative capacity.