内地-香港间客运联系研究

香港回归祖国，这一事件的发生，必将进一步促进内地与香港间的经济、政治和文化联系，而旅客往来将是这种联系的客观反映。另一方面，由于京九铁路、广深准高速铁路的建设，香港与内地联系所需要的基础设施已逐渐完备。本文对内地与香港间客运联系的演变过程和发展趋势以及主要城市间的客源潜力进行了分析研究。结果表明：改革开放以来，内地与香港间客运联系发展迅速，年旅客交流量自１９８０年的８４６万人增加到目前的７０００万人以上，平均年递增率达１５％左右，经贸发展是彼此间客运联系发展的最主要影响因素，属于单因素刺激下的增长类型；增长类型已由８０年代的高速增长型转变为９０年代中后期的低速增长型；地域联系的“向心性”特征明显，属于近距离空间运输联系类型，珠江三角洲地区是内地与香港间客运联系的主要客源地；铁路是彼此间客运联系的运输方式，承担３４的旅客交流份额，其它运输方式所占份额表现出上升趋势；内地主要城市与香港间具有一定的客源潜力，彼此间开行铁路旅客列车将具有一定的经济效益。

THE STUDY ON PASSENGER LINKAGE BETWEENHONG KONG AND INLAND CHINA

he inter regional passenger linkage is a key part of inter regional economic linkage and cultural exchange. Hong Kong has returned to China, and the transport infrastructure linking Hong Kong and other Chinese regions has been being developed quickly. On the other hand, there is no question that Hong Kong will also be the most important transfer place for China’s international trade. In this paper, the historical change and its influential factors , and developing tendency of passenger flow between Hong Kong and other Chinese regions are discussed. According to the investigation and statistical analysis, the passenger exchange between Hong Kong and other Chinese regions grew drastically in past two decades, and there is great growth potential of passenger exchange in next decade. The passenger traffic volume, for example, increased from 846 million people in 1980 to over 700 million people at present, and the average growth rate per year attained to 15%. But the results also indicate that the growth type changed from “high growth”to “low growth”. Most passengers took place between Hong Kong and Pearl River Delta region, with percentage of 65% in total passengers. Railway transport is the key transport mode for the passenger travel. In the light of the economic development, the passenger flows between Hong Kong and Beijing/Shanghai will increase in future. The economic benefits of Hong Kong—Beijing and Hong Kong—Shanghai direct through trains might be desirable because of enough passenger sources.