河西走廊东部沙尘暴预报方法研究

利用我国沙尘暴多发区, 甘肃省河西走廊东部民勤、凉州区等五站近50a的气象资料, 详细分析了河西东部沙尘暴频繁发生的气象因素, 应用近20a的天气资料, 结合近50a的典型个例做出沙尘暴的长期、中期、短期和短时预报预警系统。研究结果表明: 长期预报取决于冬春季气温、降水量和大风日数; 中期依靠使用国内外数值预报产品; 短期与大气环流条件、分型指标有关; 短时临近预报与高空大风形势、地面上游有无大风沙尘暴天气有关。

Study on Forecasting Methods of Sand-dust storm in East of Hexi Corridor

Based on the meteorological data of the representative stations from 1951 to 2000, this paper analyzed the meteorological causes of sand-dust storm frequently occurring in east of Hexi Corridor, a region of more sand-dust storms in China. A system of forecasting and warning sand-dust storms for long-term, middle-term, short-term and even shorter than 6 hours has been put forward by using the daily weather data of the past 20 years and combing with the typical sand-dust storm examples of almost 50 years. Research results show that yearly forecast has relation to temperature, precipitation and gale days from winter to spring; monthly forecast depends on the numerical forecast products in China and overseas; daily forecast relates to weather circulation conditions, differential indexes; within 6 hours now-forecast relates to the gale circulation in upper air, and the weather of gale and sand-dust storm in upwind region.