Potential impact of climate change on the water availability of South Saskatchewan River Basin |
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Authors: | Shoma Tanzeeba Thian Yew Gan |
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Institution: | (1) Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Alberta, Edmonton, Alberta, T6G 2W2, Canada; |
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Abstract: | The potential hydrologic impact of climatic change on three sub-basins of the South Saskatchewan River Basin (SSRB) within
Alberta, namely, Oldman, Bow and Red Deer River basins was investigated using the Modified Interactions Soil-Biosphere-Atmosphere
(MISBA) land surface scheme of Kerkhoven and Gan (Advances in Water Resources 29:808–826 2006). The European Centre for Mid-range Weather Forecasts global re-analysis (ERA-40) climate data, Digital Elevation Model of
the National Water Research Institute, land cover data and a priori soil parameters from the Ecoclimap global data set were
used to drive MISBA to simulate the runoff of SSRB. Four SRES scenarios (A21, A1FI, B21 and B11) of four General Circulation
Models (CCSRNIES, CGCM2, ECHAM4 and HadCM3) of IPCC were used to adjust climate data of the 1961–1990 base period (climate
normal) to study the effect of climate change on SSRB over three 30-year time periods (2010–2039, 2040–2069, 2070–2099). The
model results of MISBA forced under various climate change projections of the four GCMs with respect to the 1961–1990 normal
show that SSRB is expected to experience a decrease in future streamflow and snow water equivalent, and an earlier onset of
spring runoff despite of projected increasing trends in precipitation over the 21st century. Apparently the projected increase
in evaporation loss due to a warmer climate over the 21st century will offset the projected precipitation increase, leading
to an overall decreasing trend in the basin runoff of SSRB. Finally, a Gamma probability distribution function was fitted
to the mean annual maximum flow and mean annual mean flow data simulated for the Oldman, Bow and Red Deer River Basins by
MISBA to statistically quantify the possible range of uncertainties associated with SRES climate scenarios projected by the
four GCMs selected for this study. |
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