Climate change impacts on the hydrology of a snowmelt driven basin in semiarid Chile |
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Authors: | Sebastian Vicu?a Ren?? D Garreaud James McPhee |
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Institution: | 1. Centro Interdisciplinario de Cambio Global, Pontificia Universidad Catolica de Chile, Vicuna Mackenna 4860, Macul, Santiago, Chile 2. Department of Geophysics and Advanced Mining Technology Center, Facultad de Ciencias F??sicas y Matem??ticas, Universidad de Chile, Blanco Encalada 2002, Santiago, Chile 3. Department of Civil Engineering and Advanced Mining Technology Center, Facultad de Ciencias F??sicas y Matem??ticas, Universidad de Chile, Blanco Encalada 2002, Santiago, Chile
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Abstract: | In this paper we present an analysis of the direct impacts of climate change on the hydrology of the upper watersheds (range in elevation from 1,000 to 5,500 m above sea level) of the snowmelt-driven Limarí river basin, located in north-central Chile (30° S, 70° W). A climate-driven hydrology and water resources model was calibrated using meteorological and streamflow observations and later forced by a baseline and two climate change projections (A2, B2) that show an increase in temperature of about 3?C4°C and a reduction in precipitation of 10?C30% with respect to baseline. The results show that annual mean streamflow decreases more than the projected rainfall decrease because a warmer climate also enhances water losses to evapotranspiration. Also in future climate, the seasonal maximum streamflow tends to occur earlier than in current conditions, because of the increase in temperature during spring/summer and the lower snow accumulation in winter. |
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