Mechanism and forecasting method of persistent extreme weather events: review and prospect

Persistent extreme weather is of high disaster causing capability, represents a great threat to the safety of both people and property and results in substantial economic losses. However, the underlying mechanism of such high impact weather remains unclear, and related forecasting methods are quite under studied currently. Based on the comprehensive reviews of the relevant studies about persistent extreme weather, the prediction of such events within the period during 1～2 weeks in advance is believed to be a significant scientific issue. For this scientific problem, the studies of atmospheric low frequency process, the interaction between multi scale systems, the forcing of complicated underlying surface and sea land atmosphere interactions are necessary to be performed. These multi perspective studies will favor the final establishment of the corresponding forecasting theory and method based on the combination of dynamical prediction and statistical predication. It is hoped that the deficiencies in systematic studies about persistent extreme weather may be made up through pertinent studies, which will prolong the time length of forecasting and increase the prediction precision of such high impact events.